🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still