The average count of per-day killings monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government data. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers could fail to signal enhanced national safety.
Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages
There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.
“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.
Historical Context and Government Plan
Intense organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.
That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings in the current year.
At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”
The key elements of the President's security strategy include:
- Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
- Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.
Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations
Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that relying on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.
“That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”
As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.
“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”
Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it might mask days when there were especially high numbers of murders.
“Employing the per-day mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.
Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success
Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.
“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration
Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.
A short time after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.
“The administration shares [data] in a way to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas remarked.
